Judgmental forecasting from graphs and from experience
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چکیده
منابع مشابه
Seven Components of Judgmental Forecasting Skill: Implications for Research and the Improvement of Forecasts
A decomposition of the Brier skill score shows that the performance of judgmental forecasts depends on seven components: environmental predictability, fidelity of the information system, match between environment and forecaster, reliability of information acquisition, reliability of information processing, conditional bias, and unconditional bias. These components provide a framework for resear...
متن کاملUsing a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge
Several biases and inefficiencies are commonly associated with the judgmental extrapolation of time series even when forecasters have technical knowledge about forecasting. This study examines the effectiveness of using a rolling training approach, based on feedback, to improve the accuracy of forecasts elicited from people with such knowledge. In an experiment forecasters were asked to make mu...
متن کاملJudgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting
Judgmental bootstrapping is a type of expert system. It translates an experts' rules into a quantitative model by regressing the experts' forecasts against the information that he used. Bootstrapping models apply an experts' rules consistently, and many studies have shown that decisions and predictions from bootstrapping models are similar to those from the experts. Three studies showed that bo...
متن کاملElectronic Companion to: A Bayesian Model for Sales Forecasting at Sun Microsystems
There is a wealth of literature documenting the biases and errors associated with judgmentbased forecasting—c.f. (McGlothlin 1956, Tversky and Kahneman 1974, Wright and Ayton 1986, Bolger and Harvey 1998), for example. Mentzer and Bienstock (1998) and Tyebjee (1987) point out that in addition to these problems, judgmental sales forecasts could be distorted by other factors, such as organization...
متن کاملImproving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts
All judgmental forecasts will be affected by the inherent unreliability, or inconsistency, of the judgment process. Psychologists have studied this problem extensively, but forecasters rarely address it. Researchers and theorists describe two types of unreliability that can reduce the accuracy of judgmental forecasts: (1) unreliability of information acquisition, and (2) unreliability of inform...
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تاریخ انتشار 2014